Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $243,051$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,228.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 93.1)}}\) (asimptote \(298,228.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,731$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,671.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,671.0\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,237$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,644$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,601.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,601.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $373$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(371.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,270$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,275$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(73.1 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,971.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 121.9)}}\) (asimptote \(125,971.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,567$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,630.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 126.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,630.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,967$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $206,844$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,738.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(185,738.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,241$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,891.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,891.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,608$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,821$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(513 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,974.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.9)}}\) (asimptote \(42,974.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $98$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(0.753 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{395.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(395.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,545$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $213,716$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(6.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(297,103.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(48.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,834.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,834.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,114$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,345$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,655.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(106,655.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $133$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(175.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,314$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,735$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,966.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 120.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,966.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $218$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.17 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{375.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(375.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,371$ on 2020-07-06