Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $243,051$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,228.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 93.1)}}\) (asimptote \(298,228.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,731$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,671.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,671.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,237$ on 2020-07-06

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,644$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,601.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,601.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $373$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(371.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,270$ on 2020-07-06

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,275$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(73.1 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,971.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 121.9)}}\) (asimptote \(125,971.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,567$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,630.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 126.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,630.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,967$ on 2020-07-06

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $206,844$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,738.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(185,738.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,241$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,891.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,891.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,608$ on 2020-07-06

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,821$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(513 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,974.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.9)}}\) (asimptote \(42,974.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(0.753 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{395.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(395.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,545$ on 2020-07-06

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $213,716$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(6.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(297,103.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(48.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,834.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,834.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,114$ on 2020-07-06

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,345$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,655.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(106,655.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $133$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(175.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,314$ on 2020-07-06

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,735$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,966.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 120.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,966.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $218$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.17 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{375.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(375.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,371$ on 2020-07-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 97%
Sri Lanka recovered 84%
Qatar recovered 82%
Singapore recovered 80%
Turkey recovered 77%
Afghanistan recovered 40%
Iran recovered 22%
Bahrain recovered 21%
Nepal recovered 12%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,668$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,370.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,370.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(61.2 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-07-06

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,077$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(259 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,226.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,226.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(6.17 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 11.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $149$ on 2020-07-06

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,983$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,643.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 103.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,643.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(8.17 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,240$ on 2020-07-06

Afghanistan⮸

Population $38,928,346$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,190$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,444.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,444.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $898$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,665.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 100.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,665.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,189$ on 2020-07-06